NFL
Thu, Sep 24, 8:15 PM ET36m agoBest Props →
System Play
+34.3%
Under 43.5: the public is on Over, the money and the line went to Under.
Money 88% under, tickets 54% · line 44 to 43
The public is on one side, the money is on the other, and the line followed the money.
Heavy Money
74%
The big money is on GB ML: 74% of dollars, 64% of bets.
| Side | # % | $ % | Diff | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB # $ | 64% | 74% | +9% | – |
No signal: Sharp Signal.
EV
True Price vs the best price available anywhere. EV is your expected return on the bet.
Heavy Money
How much money is on a side versus how many bets are on it. The gap is the read.
Sharp Signal
Top-decile Polymarket wallets, scored vs closing price -- entries and exits both count. Public data, check it yourself.
System Play
The public is on one side, the money is on the other, and the line followed the money.
Trends
Favors ATLATSnamed game
Teams that started 0-2 both straight up and against the spread, playing as underdogs in Week 3 against an opponent that has a straight-up or ATS win
28-14 (67%)
41.1K views · 218 likes · 24 reposts
@ActionNetworkHQ · Source ↗
Favors ATL · Road non-divisional underdogs coming off a blowout loss against the spread
42.3K views · @Bet_Labs
Favors ATL · Unders in NFC primetime games officiated by referee Shawn Smith
20.3K views · @trendscenterapp
Favors ATL · Week 3 underdogs that started 0-2 both straight up and against the spread, facing an opponent with at least one straight-up or ATS win
8.6K views · @ActionNetworkHQ
| Venue | ATL spread | GB spread | Over | Under | ATL ML | GB ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAKalshi | +4.5 +104 | -4.5 -104 | 43.5 +113 | 43.5 -113 | +223 | -233 |
| DRDraftKings | +4.5 -105 | -4.5 -115 | 42.5 -118 | 42.5 -102 | +200 | -245 |
| FAFanDuel | +5.5 -118 | -5.5 -104 | 43.5 -104 | 43.5 -118 | +198 | -240 |
| BEBetMGM | +4.5 -108 | -4.5 -110 | 43 -110 | 43 -108 | +210 | -250 |
| CACaesars | +4.5 -105 | -4.5 -115 | 43.5 -103 | 43.5 -118 | +205 | -250 |
| FAFanatics | +5.5 -115 | -5.5 -105 | 43 -110 | 43 -110 | +210 | -260 |
| BEBetRivers | +5 -109 | -5 -112 | 43 -114 | 43 -107 | +210 | -265 |
| ATL # $ | 36% | 26% | -9% | – |
Heavy Money
88%
The big money is on Under 43.5: 88% of dollars, 54% of bets.
| Side | # % | $ % | Diff | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| under # $ | 54% | 88% | +34% | – |
| over # $ | 46% | 12% | -34% | – |
Trends
28-14
Teams that started 0-2 both straight up and against the spread, playing as underdogs in Week 3 against an opponent that has a straight-up or ATS win (28-14) favors ATL +4.5, via @ActionNetworkHQ.
41.1K views · 218 likes · 24 reposts
ActionNetworkHQ -- @ActionNetworkHQ ↗3 more trends on this game, by popularity.
See all in Trends ↓EV
+18.1%
Over 43.5 at +144 is a +18.1% EV bet.
| Side | True Price | Best price | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 45.5 | +108 | +144 (Kalshi) | +18.1% |
| Under 43 | -100 | -107 (BetRivers) | -2.4% |
Analysts
11 of 11
11 of 11 analysts on GB ML.
Nick Meyer
“Love might be banged up after his injury admission, but the Packers have enough talent to lift him to greater heights, and another win, in Week 3.”
GB ML 75¢Read at source ↗
Danny Small
“Based on these underlying metrics, the Packers represent a statistically safer prediction to secure the outright win.”
GB ML 71¢Read at source ↗
Andrew Buller-Russ
“Michael Penix’s Three-INT Game Fuels Packers Past Falcons”
GB ML 72¢Read at source ↗
Colin Cowherd· punditPodcast
“Packers are not losing this game. Okay, you can take that. Take that to the bank.”
GB ML 72¢The Herd · 26:31 ▶
Tom Silverstein· punditPodcast
“So I'd be surprised if the Packers didn't win.”
“i think the packers when uh... but i don't think it's going to be a big number”
GB ML 71¢GB ML 71¢VSiN's Follow the Money · 10:37 ▶
Trevor Knapp· betting analyst
“The Kevin Stefanski era is already off to a messy start in Atlanta, and things will get even uglier when the Packers blow out the Falcons in prime time.”
Analysts
4 of 5
4 of 5 analysts on ATL +4.5.
Garrett Kerman
“Green Bay wins a game that finishes closer to 24-17 than a blowout, covering the spread comfortably while the under hits, rewarding bettors who trust that this Thursday night clash will be decided by execution in the trenches rather than a shootout through the air.”
GB SPREAD +20.5Read at source ↗
Simon Hunter· punditPodcast
“So I'll take a little on the Falcons, but I'm not going to put a lot of money into it yet.”
ATL SPREAD +6.5Sharp or Square · 9:13 ▶
Jason Logan· betting analyst
“Kalshi has half-point increments, which has me leaning to Atlanta Falcons +7.5 for an added cost.”
ATL SPREAD +7.5Read at source ↗
Analysts
3 of 3
3 of 3 analysts on Under 43.5.
Garrett Kerman
“Despite the offensive talent on both sides, the bold prediction for the scoreboard is that this game stays under the posted total of 44.5, with defense and turnovers defining the outcome more than explosive plays.”
UNDER 44.5Read at source ↗
Jason Logan· betting analyst
“Early Falcons vs Packers total pick: Under 44.5”
UNDER 44.5Read at source ↗
A system or trend from a named source, with its record, favoring a side.
Analysts
Named analysts across the web, extracted verbatim. Fires when they agree.
Favors ATL · Underdogs coming off a loss by 31 or more points as an underdog the previous week
9.1K views · @trendscenterapp
GB ML 71¢Read at source ↗
Matt Johnson
“Bijan Robinson will do his best to keep Atlanta in this one, but third-down woes result in more field goals than red-zone trips and that makes a difference in Green Bay’s 28-20 win in their home opener on Thursday Night Football.”
GB ML 75¢Read at source ↗
Matt Johnson
“Green Bay needed that comeback win against the Jets, and it should beat the Falcons on Thursday Night Football in Week 3.”
GB ML 75¢Read at source ↗
Paul Noonan
“Green Bay should win this game, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen a beginning to a season that is less predictive in terms of what is about to happen, and the weird, bizarre, dysfunctional Falcons QB room makes predicting them a nightmare.”
GB ML 70¢Read at source ↗