NFL
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Heavy Money
73%
The big money is on JAX -2.5: 73% of dollars, 55% of bets.
| Side | # % | $ % | Diff | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX # $ | 55% | 73% | +18% | +122 |
| NE # $ | 45% | 27% | -18% | -122 |
No signal: System Play, Sharp Signal, Trends.
EV
True Price vs the best price available anywhere. EV is your expected return on the bet.
Heavy Money
How much money is on a side versus how many bets are on it. The gap is the read.
Sharp Signal
Top-decile Polymarket wallets, scored vs closing price -- entries and exits both count. Public data, check it yourself.
System Play
The public is on one side, the money is on the other, and the line followed the money.
Trends
No trends attached to this game yet.
| Venue | NE spread | JAX spread | Over | Under | NE ML | JAX ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAKalshi | +3.5 -122 | -3.5 +122 | 45.5 -100 | 45.5 -100 | +144 | -150 |
| POPolymarket | +2.5 +117 | -2.5 -117 | 45.5 -104 | 45.5 +104 | +138 | – |
| DRDraftKings | +3 -118 | -3 -102 | 45.5 -115 | 45.5 -105 | +130 | -155 |
| FAFanDuel | +2.5 +100 | -2.5 -122 | 45.5 -105 | 45.5 -115 | +132 | -154 |
| BEBetMGM | +3 -118 | -3 -102 | 45.5 -115 | 45.5 -112 | +130 | -160 |
| CACaesars | +3 -115 | -3 -105 | 45.5 -110 | 45.5 -109 | +130 | -154 |
| FAFanatics | +3 -115 | -3 -105 | 45.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| BEBetRivers | +3 -114 | -3 -107 | 45.5 -107 | 45.5 -114 | +120 | -148 |
How the market’s number has moved. Book overlay arrives as book history accumulates.
EV
+6.0%
Over 45.5 at +117 is a +6.0% EV bet.
| Side | True Price | Best price | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 46.5 | +104 | +117 (Polymarket) | +6.0% |
| Under 45.5 | -104 | +104 (Polymarket) | +4.4% |
EV
+5.0%
Under 45.5 at +117 is a +5.0% EV bet.
| Side | True Price | Best price | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 44.5 | +108 | +117 (Polymarket) | +5.0% |
| Over 46.5 | +104 | +117 (Polymarket) | +6.0% |
Analysts
5 of 6
5 of 6 analysts on JAX ML.
Josh Davis
“The Jaguars will escape with a 24-20 victory, climb above .500 and leave New England carrying lingering offensive questions into its Week 4 road matchup vs. the Buffalo Bills.”
JAX ML 59¢Read at source ↗
Andrew Buller-Russ
“The issue here is that their Week 3 opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars , boast a much better scoring attack than the Steelers do, and Liam Coen’s coaching will ultimately overcome Vrabel in this one.”
JAX ML 60¢Read at source ↗
Trevor Knapp· betting analyst
“In the Duval heat, I'm not going against the Jags.”
JAX ML 60¢Read at source ↗
Andrew Buller-Russ
“Brian Thomas Jr’s 100-Yard Game Helps Jaguars Roar Past Patriots”
JAX ML 59¢Read at source ↗
Marima
“This won’t be an easy ride, as QB Trevor Lawrence is a lot quicker than Aaron Rodgers, but I believe the Patriots catch a win Sunday to return home 2-1.”
NE ML 41¢Read at source ↗
Analysts
8 of 10
8 of 10 analysts on JAX -2.5.
Owen OBrien
“I'll lay under a field goal early with Jacksonville at home.”
JAX SPREAD -3Read at source ↗
Simon Hunter· punditPodcast
“So, I like to pick, like you said, try to get to two and a half, right?”
“So, Chad's choice, Jacksonville Jaguars minus two and a half.”
JAX SPREAD -2.5JAX SPREAD -2.5Sharp or Square · 13:01 ▶
Gil Alexander· punditPodcast
“I have the Jaguars minus two and a half Jaguars taking on the New England Patriots.”
“I fired away on opener Seahawks laid five and a half Jags two and a half.”
JAX SPREAD -2.5JAX SPREAD -2.5VSiN's A Numbers Game · 43:55 ▶
Jason Logan· betting analyst
“My first trade of NFL Week 3 was the Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 on Sunday night when odds opened across the industry.”
JAX SPREAD -2.5Read at source ↗
Owen OBrien
“I have this as a 2-point line, so I'm going to jump on this with the Pats while I can get a push on the key number.”
NE SPREAD +3Read at source ↗
Drew Dinsick· punditPodcast
“I laid three with the Jacksonville Jaguars against the Patriots”
JAX SPREAD -3VSiN's A Numbers Game · 20:49 ▶
A system or trend from a named source, with its record, favoring a side.
Analysts
Named analysts across the web, extracted verbatim. Fires when they agree.
Jason Logan· betting analyst
“I like this home favorite below a field goal in Week 3.”
JAX SPREAD -2.5Read at source ↗